Aceh – Indonesia, The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that several Indonesian regions will experience rainfall today, Monday (10/5).
According to the BMKG for the first decade of October 2026, approximately 79.65 percent of Indonesia is forecast to experience low-category rainfall (0-50 mm/decade), followed by medium-category rainfall (50-150 mm/decade) at around 19.99 percent, and high-category rainfall (150-300 mm/decade) at roughly 0.36 percent.

BMKG explained that the dominance of low-category rainfall indicates that dry conditions are likely to persist, particularly in areas that have previously experienced prolonged periods without rain.

Nevertheless, the potential for rain remains in several regions. Equatorial Rossby Waves are predicted to actively cross parts of Sumatra, while Kelvin Waves are expected to be active over central Sumatra, northern Kalimantan, northern Sulawesi, and North Maluku.

Furthermore, the Australian Monsoon is forecast to strengthen over the coming days, signaling the growing influence of this system and easterly winds across southern Indonesia. This condition tends to limit the moisture supply and suppress the potential for rain.

Even so, rain cloud formation can still increase in areas influenced by atmospheric waves, relatively warm sea surface temperatures, and the formation of convergence zones, deceleration, and wind turns.

“The interaction of these factors can trigger localized rainfall, although overall, the strengthening of the Australian Monsoon still supports relatively drier conditions in southern Indonesia,” BMKG stated on its official website, Friday (10/2).

Here is the list of regions with the potential for heavy rain, Monday (10/5):

Aceh
North Sumatra
West Sumatra
Riau
Jambi
Bengkulu
Banten
West Java
West Kalimantan
North Kalimantan
Highland Papua

List of regions with potential for strong winds:

North Maluku
North Sulawesi